So, I’m following up on the last post about the Five Midwests. First, I’d add a correction to my previous post on this. I would include portions of West Virginia and Kentucky in this mix, at least the parts closest to the Ohio River. The uplands beyond the river are much more Appalachian – and Southern – in orientation. That makes 16 states that could lay some claim to territory in the Midwest, but with seven core Midwestern states.
Here’s a map that illustrates my thoughts on the Five Midwests:
Here’s a typology table that might illustrate some of the differences of the Midwest’s subregions:
Five Midwests Typology | ||||||
Region | Population (2010 Est.) | Full States Included | Partial States Included | Initial Settlement Period | Settler Group(s) | Period of Greatest Growth |
North Woods | 4,000,000 | --- | MI, WI, MN | 1850-1880 | New Englanders; Scandinavians | 1880-1910 |
Lower Lakes | 29,000,000 | --- | NY, PA, OH, MI, IN, IL, WI | 1820-1850 | New Englanders; Mid-Atlantic farmers; Mid-Atlantic businessmen; Eastern and Southern Europeans; Blacks; Hispanics | 1900-1930 |
Heartland | 15,500,000 | --- | OH, IN, IL, IA, MN | 1820-1850 | Mid-Atlantic farmers; Southern farmers; Eastern and Southern Europeans; Blacks | 1950-1980 |
Midland Valley | 13,500,000 | --- | PA, WV, KY, OH, IN, IL, MO | 1800-1830 | Mid-Atlantic farmers; Southern farmers; Blacks | 1900-1930 |
Plains | 7,250,000 | --- | MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS | 1870-1900 | Heartland farmers; Rust Belt farmers; Mid-Atlantic businessmen | 1900-1930 |
And another table that shows estimated population breakdowns, within subregions, by state:
Midwest Population Breakdown (Estimate) | ||||||||||
State Pop. (2010) | Midwest Pop. (2010) | Pct. Of State Pop. In Midwest | North Woods | Lower Lakes | Heartland | Midland Valley | Plains | State Capital | State Capital Midwest Location | |
OH | 10,500,000 | 10,500,000 | 100.0% | 0 | 5,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 3,500,000 | 0 | Columbus | Heartland |
MI | 9,500,000 | 9,500,000 | 100.0% | 1,500,000 | 8,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lansing | Lower Lakes |
IN | 6,000,000 | 6,000,000 | 100.0% | 0 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 0 | Indianapolis | Heartland |
WI | 6,000,000 | 6,000,000 | 100.0% | 1,000,000 | 3,500,000 | 1,500,000 | 0 | 0 | Madison | Lower Lakes |
MN | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 100.0% | 500,000 | 0 | 4,000,000 | 0 | 500,000 | St. Paul | Heartland |
IA | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 3,000,000 | 0 | 1,000,000 | Des Moine | Plains/Heartland |
IL | 12,500,000 | 12,250,000 | 98.0% | 0 | 9,000,000 | 2,500,000 | 750,000 | 0 | Springfield | Heartland |
MO | 6,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 83.3% | 0 | 0 | 500,000 | 2,500,000 | 2,000,000 | Jefferson City | --- |
KS | 2,500,000 | 2,000,000 | 80.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,000,000 | Topeka | Plains |
NE | 1,500,000 | 1,000,000 | 66.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000,000 | Lincoln | Plains |
ND | 500,000 | 250,000 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250,000 | Bismarck | Plains |
SD | 1,000,000 | 500,000 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500,000 | Pierre | Plains |
WV | 4,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000,000 | 0 | Charleston | --- |
PA | 13,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 23.1% | 0 | 500,000 | 0 | 2,500,000 | 0 | Harrisburg | --- |
KY | 4,500,000 | 1,000,000 | 22.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000,000 | 0 | Frankfort | --- |
NY | 19,000,000 | 2,500,000 | 13.2% | 1,000,000 | 1,500,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Albany | --- |
105,500,000 | 69,500,000 | 4,000,000 | 29,500,000 | 15,500,000 | 13,250,000 | 7,250,000 | ||||
Percent of Midwest Pop. | 5.8% | 42.4% | 22.3% | 19.1% | 10.4% | |||||
This is where some trends become apparent. These are purely estimates, but the Lower Lakes subregion heads this list in terms of population in the Midwest, with more than 42 percent. Heartland and Midland Valley are a distant second and third, at 22 and 19 percent respectively. The Plains and North Woods are even further behind at 10 and 6 percent respectively – not surprising since harsh climates and scarce resources have limited their development.
What stands out to me, however, is the location of state capitals when compared with major populations in the Midwest. Refer back to the Five Midwests map. The map also shows the location of state capitals (marked with an asterisk) and the location of the 14 metro areas with a population over one million within my Midwest boundaries (cross-hatched counties). If anyone wants to know why Midwestern states might be slow to act on the wish lists of their major cities, this map might show why. Midwestern state capitals are largely located in the Heartland or Plains subregions, and are physically separated from large metros in the Lower Lakes and Midland Valley. In fact, some of the best economically performing metros over the last couple decades have been Heartland state capitals (Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis/St. Paul).
My larger point is that even though proportional districting in state legislatures brings appropriate representation to state capitals, the location of state capitals away from the population centers of the region can lead to some identity crises among the states and for the region as a whole. At least that’s the theory I’m working with.