Abidjan – Looking into the future of the global economy, the World Bank on Monday said Nigeria and other emerging economies would determine the new structure of the global economy by 2025.
Nigeria has a Vision 20:2020 aimed at becoming one of the 20 most developed economies in the world by 2020.
The report on the future of the global economy, entitled: “Global Development Horizons 2011’’, said the world economy would assume a different structure by 2025, with many emerging economies driving global growth.
The report subtitled, “Multi-polarity: The New Global Economy’’ listed other African economies among the 60 likely global actors, which include Ghana, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco and Kenya.
The report said the position of the advanced or developed countries would be less significant as growth would be diversified, with other currencies upstaging the dominance of the dollar in trade.
“The international monetary system is likely to cease being dominated by a single currency.
“The emerging countries, where three-fourths of the official foreign exchange reserves are currently held and whose sovereign wealth funds and other pulls of capital are increasing important sources of international investment will play key roles in financial markets.
“In short, a new world order with a more diffused economic power is emerging. There will be a shift towards multi-polarity,’’ the report said.
It said the Euro had gained wide acceptance in the international cycle, while the Yen and the pounds sterling remain “single digit shares of financial reserves”.
Another currency that would pose a competition to the dollar, according to the report, is the Chinese renminbi.
“China’s economy and the rapid globalisation of its corporations and banks will position the renminbi to take a more important international role, ‘’ the report added.
“By 2025, the most probable global currency scenario will be a multi-polar one centred around the dollar, euro and the renminbi,’’ the report said.
According to the report, multi-polarity implies a situation where numerous national concentration of power exists but no single centre dominates politically.
“At no time in modern history have so many developing countries been at the forefront of a multi-polar economic system.
“Within the next two decades, the rise of emerging economies will inevitably have major implication for the global economic and geo-political landscape,’’ the report.
It said that policy makers would need to equip themselves with the tools and capacities to effectively capitalise on opportunities, while simultaneously safeguarding their economies against risks.
The report said the emerging economies had become a “powerful force’’ in international production, trade and finance.
“Emerging and developing economies’ share of international trade has risen steadily from 26 per cent in 1995 to an estimated 42 per cent in 2010.
“Much of this rise has been due to an expansion of trade not between developed countries and developing countries, but among developing countries,’’ the report said.
It said that by 2025, six major emerging economies – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation – would collectively account for more than half of all global growth.
According to the report, growth in 2025 will be largely driven by good policies, investment in technology and a healthy regard for research and development.
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